Why Real Madrid may ultimately regret letting Alonso go
Toni Kroos’ 30M Euro move to Real Madrid and Xabi Alonso’s 8M Euro move in the opposite direction were two of the more intriguing transactions of the transfer window this past summer. While the two moves happened in isolation, they were related in the sense that it was only after Real closed the deal for Kroos earlier in the transfer window (shortly after his World Cup triumph), that Alonso essentially became surplus to requirements in the mind of Madrid’s power brokers. Bayern Munich and Pep Guardiola were more than happy to pounce when they realized that the Spanish International was available at a relatively cut-price fee.
Several Madridistas were (and still are) disappointed to see Alonso leave, and many recognized that Toni Kroos, for all his offensive talent, doesn’t have the natural defensive characteristics possessed by the Spanish International. To put this into perspective, I tried to break down the similarities and differences between the two former World Cup winners by taking a closer look at the performance of Kroos at Bayern over a 5-year period, and that of Alonso in a Real outfit over the same timeframe, and unraveled the following:
Goals, Shots and Creativity:
Between the 09/10 season and the 13/14 season, Kroos averaged 4 goals per season (0.91 non-penalty kick goals per 90), 2.35 shots per 90, 7 assists per season, 2.46 shot assists per 90 and 0.26 big chances created per 90. During the same period, Alonso averaged 1 goal per season (0.02 non-penalty kick goals per 90), 0.68 shots per 90, 5 assists per season, 1.76 shot assists per 90 and 0.19 big chances created per 90.
Essentially, on every one of the offensive metrics mentioned, Kroos has superior numbers, partly explained by the fact that he’s generally played closer to goal than Alonso, who has almost exclusively sat in front of the back four in his career.
On the Ball – Passing:
In terms of passing statistics over the past 5 seasons, Kroos has averaged 63.6 passes per 90 and 0.5 through balls per 90, with an overall passing accuracy of 87.5%. Alonso on the other hand has averaged 75.4 passes per 90, and 0.69 through balls per 90 with an overall passing accuracy of 86%.
While Alonso’s passing accuracy is slightly lower than that of Kroos, (86% vs. 87.5%), he’s averaged 18.6% more passes per game and 38% more through balls per game than Kroos over the past five seasons.
Defensive Action & Duels:
It’s probably on the defensive side of the ball that the effect of losing Alonso in favor of Kroos is going to be felt at Real Madrid over the long term. Over the past 5 years, the German has averaged 2 tackles per 90 in comparison to Alonso’s 3.42. In terms of defensive positional and tactical awareness, Kroos has averaged 0.23 interceptions per game in comparison to 1.4 interceptions per game for Alonso. Lastly and perhaps most crucially, Alonso has recovered 96.2% more balls per game on average than Kroos (10.4 ball recoveries per game vs. 5.3).
With the exception of Madrid’s early-season loss to Real Sociedad in which Los Blancos were exposed defensively, Luca Modric and Toni Kroos have anchored Madrid’s midfield with absolute class. The reality however is that Real Madrid hasn’t been tested enough to determine if the void left by Alonso’s departure is being filled in terms of the protection he provided the defensive back-line of four. Sami Khedira would provide more defensive cover in the midfield position, but his relative lack of technical quality on the ball means that Ancelotti has preferred a Modric-Kroos partnership in midfield. Even in the absence of Modric due to injury, Ancelotti has opted for Isco as a deep-lying playmaker over Khedira. While this strategy may be successful against most teams Madrid encounters, you have to wonder whether Ancelotti’s men may come undone against higher quality opposition. We may not find out until the latter stages of the Champions League this year where the likes of Chelsea or Bayern Munich will provide a much tougher attacking threat to Los Blancos than is posed to them most weekends in La Liga.